By Chris Kelly, CEO, Upwave

Imagine someone ten years ago telling you the following would happen in 2024: YouTube creator-turned-boxer Jake Paul beat 58-year-old Mike Tyson in a professional boxing match, which 60 million households watched live on Netflix. Of all the crazy things contained within, the most shocking might be that Netflix is in the business of live-streaming boxing. 2024 was a time of real change in the marketing industry, and 2025 will be no different. Here’s what we anticipate happening next year.

Sports will continue to move towards a streaming-first entertainment vehicle

Netflix’s boxing broadcast was no one-off project. Netflix has two NFL Christmas games, with the ad inventory for both games having already sold out.

The sports leagues are all quite transparent that they see streaming as their future, and many major rights holders are all looking to push their marquee events to streaming. It seems only inertia (and some complicated legacy contractual matters) are holding back the final step in this regard: linear losing the grip on any major sporting event.

There’s an under-discussed UX opportunity with this shift. Some broadcasters have a “main feed” with their A-tier commentators on their premier linear channel, with alternative broadcasts like the Manningcast or All-22 camera footage on secondary cable channels or streaming. In 2025, we’ll see more experimentation there, taking advantage of the infinite “channels” available on a streaming app. Perhaps, the priorities will eventually flip and you will need a streaming service to see the main feed of the Super Bowl or National Championship, with the broadcast feed featuring something that appeals to an aging demographic.

The streaming industry is changing FAST

Every week, there is seemingly more ground-shaking news about the streaming industry. The latest ARF DASH study, released in November 2024, highlights the ongoing growth of FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) services. The data reveals that both the overall penetration of FAST services and the adoption of most individual platforms continued to rise steadily through Spring 2024.

The FAST-related shakeups are happening. Amazon recently shut down Freevee, which provided both free, ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) and free, ad-supported television (FAST). This was done because Amazon’s premium-offering Prime, launched an ad-supported tier at the beginning of 2024. Amazon now has its entire streaming business under the Prime name, offering free advertising-based content (the content formerly on Freevee), an ad-supported paid tier, and an ad-free paid tier. It also has a live shopping channel (Amazon Live). Admittedly, the average consumer probably does not know (or even care) about the difference between these offerings. They just want great content on their big screen.

But the consolidation reinforces that even premium subscribers who pay for the ability to stream marquee content on demand like the variety that FAST channels offer. Fox Corporation’s FAST offering Tubi will reach $1 billion in revenue in 2024, joining Paramount Global’s Pluto TV, which reached that mark in 2021. One estimate has 25% of all American households watching FAST channels.

We predict streaming platforms will continue to experiment with business models and FAST offerings as more customers join the streaming revolution, and a player like Tubi will crack the top 5 most-viewed platforms.

Growth of independent media

As the 2024 Presidential election reached its final days, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were showing up on a host of podcasts and YouTube shows, seemingly eschewing the traditional cable hits that previously made or broke candidates. More Call Her Daddy and This Past Weekend and less CNN and Fox News.

While any statements about the demise of cable media are certainly premature, it’s clear that independent media has reached a level of maturity that brands must take seriously. Executives and decision-makers are actively reaching out to independent media, like Joe Rogan, seeking to get their message to new audiences.

That means more advertisers may need to adjust their comfort level with controversial or historically non-brand-safe topics. It also means a more robust targeting and measurement infrastructure must be built for these newer outlets. But while advertisers may tread warily at first, they will go where the eyeballs and ears go–and that is increasingly taking place on upstart media.

Fill-in-the-blanks Media Networks

If 2024 was the year that retail media networks became a big thing, expect several industries to learn from the leaders and start their own. We’re already seeing financial media networks brewing. Chase kicked things off in April and more are watching intently. Expedia is a category leader in the burgeoning travel media network. Delivery media, airport media, and pharma media aren’t far behind.

What RMNs demonstrated above all is that data is king. We’re seeing a lot of interest in brand building through these networks as more advertisers see them as a major ecosystem player, not just an immediate demand engine. As more media networks pop up in different industries, you’ll likely see a robust ecosystem where most companies are both supply and demand of advertising in each other’s industry gardens. As for the originator of this trend, retailers will continue to work with advertisers to help them unlock upper-funnel growth while continuing to help them convert sales.

Greater emphasis on outcomes

It’s all people could talk about this year and, frankly, it’s about time. It came from the platforms, like Paramount, who promised always-on outcomes measurement during the 2024 Upfronts/Newfronts. In 2025, brands will expect and demand deliverability metrics like attention tie more directly into business, behavioral and brand outcomes. That will require more collaboration and partnerships between measurement providers to create a more holistic picture of ad effectiveness from delivery, through all the stages on the way to sales.

The backlash against the backlash against AI

No 2025 prediction is complete without mentioning AI, but, trust me, this one’s a little bit different. The excitement in the advertising industry surrounding AI will begin to dim a bit as some get impatient about timelines or don’t see the transcendental improvement they expected. There will be a bit of a backlash to AI–with some industry leaders openly questioning whether AI’s true potential will ever be released. But just as that idea starts to take root, more companies will demonstrate groundbreaking successes in pilots and implementations and more leaders will express their beliefs that AI will underpin everything we do in the future. And the AI hype cycle will renew.

As always, we’re bullish about the future of advertising. Improvements in technology will bring greater efficiencies, and developments in content delivery will continue to offer both advertisers and consumers more choice. Above all, everyone in the ad ecosystem needs to orient their decisions, objectives, and measurement towards outcomes. In the long run, only effective ads will keep this massive, socially important industry afloat.