This article is by Kellogg School of Management Clinical Professor Julie Hennessy.
Two debates down, more to come, and still almost 14 months until election day. As voters attempt to digest the flood of information and commentary coming at them about a sea of potential presidential candidates for 2016, just what is in their heads? How do they think about the “brands” of these candidates? So, we asked roughly 900 voters a question. Not who will you vote for, or what positions do you agree with, but simply, “When you think about (candidate), what is the first impression that comes into your mind?” 900 potential voters answered the questions in September, in a survey conducted by Brand Imperatives and Survata. Their answers are interesting, and sometimes surprising.
The Good and the Bad
First impressions matter and so do first thoughts. Do people think something positive, like “smart” or “good leader” or something negative, like “dishonest” or “bad hair?” Well, so far, the survey says we think most highly of Democrats and Women. Bernie Sanders comes out on top with 72% of those asked leading with a positive comment. The next in line are the women – 49% for Hillary Clinton and 47% for Carly Fiorina. Who brings out the nasty thoughts? Well, it looks like tough stands may elicit tough commentary back. Donald Trump at 50% negative first comments, and Scott Walker at 49% lead the pack.
What’s in Voter’s Heads, So Far?
1. Where’s the Love, Hillary?
Women support Hillary Clinton, but it’s no love-fest. When asked what comes to mind first, 62% of women have something positive to say vs. only 34% of men. However, ladies’ first comments are most often “Strong/Tough Woman” or “Powerful.” These qualities may be important in a president, but hint at the likability problem that could be an Achilles heel. “Dishonest” and “Not Trustworthy” are also frequent, but are twice as likely to come from a man as a woman.
2. We Can’t Agree on Donald, But We Can’t Stop Watching Him Either
Trump is this season’s most polarizing candidate, and this continued to be evident in the September 16 debate. Many voters comment that he’s an “Idiot” or “Stupid” but others say “Intelligent” and “Gets Things Done.” Many think his candidacy is just a show, with “Loud,” “Outspoken,” “Arrogant” and “Good Speaker” as frequent thoughts. Interestingly, despite all the press, “Racist,” “Anti-Woman” and “Anti-Immigrant” comments from respondents were at relatively low levels. But, he beats all other candidates on “Rich” and “Loves America” and “Bad Hair!”
3. Thoughts on Jeb Bush? What Thoughts?
Jeb Bush is at the bottom of the pack on positive thoughts, with only 13% of those surveyed leading with a positive comment about him. But interestingly, he is also at the bottom of the pack on positives and negatives combined. So truly, what do voters think of Jeb Bush? Well, they basically don’t. When pushed, the number one comment links him to his “Political family.” Those surveyed are almost four times as likely to connect Jeb with his father/brother as to comment that Hillary is “Bill’s wife.” Consistent with past perceptions of his brother, he wins vs. other candidates on “Not Smart.” And finally, he’s the leader vs. all candidates on “Boring.” Watch for him to try to spice things up.
What’s on Top/Who’s on Top?
When you ask people what they’re thinking, here’s what they say first:
First Impressions
Candidate | Top Association |
Hillary Clinton | Strong/Tough Woman |
Donald Trump | Rich |
Jeb Bush | Political Family |
Bernie Sanders | Honest/Loyal |
Scott Walker | Anti-Union |
John Kasich | Honest |
Carly Fiorina | Intelligent |
Ted Cruz | Conservative |
Marco Rubio | Young |
But some candidates leave the others in the dust on a few interesting dimensions:Looking at the secondary associations adds some dimension here. Hillary is a “Tough Woman,” but then “Smart” and “Dishonest.” Trump is “Rich,” “Loud,” “Intelligent,” with a touch of “Racist” and “Arrogant.” Bernie Sanders is “Old,” but an “Honest,” “Caring,” “Socialist.” And, despite Mario Rubio’s “Youth,” he is seen as a particularly “Intelligent” “Conservative.”
Winners by Key Association
Comment | Who Wins? |
Smart | Carly Fiorina |
Bad Hair | Donald Trump |
Boring | Jeb Bush |
Good Looking | Marco Rubio |
Great Leader | Donald Trump |
Socialist/Liberal | Bernie Sanders |
Young | Marco Rubio |
Old | Bernie Sanders |
Loves America | Donald Trump |
Carly has the most upside, Jeb needs to define himself outside of the dynasty, Donald could use a stylist, Hillary will work on being seen as more human, and Marco is the vanity candidate this year. It will be interesting to continue to follow these candidate brands as they develop. The Democrats are just scheduling their own debates, Biden is still “thinking about it,” and it’s a long way to election time.
Source: here